Dominion Financial

Real Estate Investing Blog

Real estate investing insights, market trends, and lending strategies from the Dominion Financial team. Written by investors, for investors. New posts weekly.

Migration + Demographics: The Real Estate Thesis Supply Data Can't Replace
Market Insight

Migration + Demographics: The Real Estate Thesis Supply Data Can't Replace

Migration and demographic trends determine the long-term demand floor for a real estate market, while supply and absorption data explain shorter-term cyclical price and vacancy swings within that market. According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 31 states had positive net domestic migration between July 2024 and June 2025, led by North Carolina (84,000+ net arrivals), Texas (67,300), South Carolina (66,600), and Tennessee (42,000+). Florida's net domestic migration dropped sharply to 22,517 in 2025, down from 310,892 in 2022, reflecting rising property taxes, insurance costs, and home prices eroding its pandemic-era affordability advantage. Meanwhile, the Midwest posted positive net domestic migration for the first time this decade. Investors should evaluate both migration trends and current supply/absorption conditions together, since a market can have strong migration and still be temporarily oversupplied, or weak migration and still be tight due to limited new construction.

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Why "Normalized" Rates Don't Mean a Normal Housing Market
Market Insight

Why "Normalized" Rates Don't Mean a Normal Housing Market

As of September 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield (near 4.9-5%) and 30-year mortgage rates (around 6.67-6.76%) have returned to ranges considered historically normal by pre-2010 standards. Despite this, U.S. existing-home sales remain historically weak, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million in August 2026, with months' supply climbing to 4.9, the highest level in over a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors. The gap between "normal" rates and a still-frozen transaction market is driven primarily by the mortgage rate lock-in effect: homeowners who bought or refinanced at 2.5-3.5% during 2020-2021 face a strong financial disincentive to sell, since moving means giving up that rate for a new mortgage well above 6%. This lock-in effect unwinds gradually, driven by individual life events rather than rate changes, meaning transaction volume may stay subdued even if rates hold steady or ease modestly.

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What the 2021-2022 Buying Spree Got Wrong (And Replacement Cost Would Have Caught)
Market Insight

What the 2021-2022 Buying Spree Got Wrong (And Replacement Cost Would Have Caught)

Institutional real estate investors who bought heavily in 2021-2022 often underwrote deals using IRR models and compressed cap rates that assumed cheap refinancing and aggressive rent growth would continue indefinitely. When interest rates rose and rent growth slowed, those assumptions broke down, and many of the same buyers became net sellers. Replacement cost, the cost to build a comparable property today, would have flagged those deals as overpriced regardless of interest rate assumptions, since it depends only on current land and construction costs rather than forecasts. As of 2024, construction costs made up a record 64.4% of a new home's average sales price in the U.S., according to the National Association of Home Builders, making replacement cost an increasingly useful underwriting benchmark for investors in 2026.

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Why Tenant Screening Discipline Matters More in an Uncertain Economy
Investor Tip

Why Tenant Screening Discipline Matters More in an Uncertain Economy

When rental demand is strong, and refinancing is easy, filling a vacancy quickly can start to matter more than screening rigorously. That tradeoff looks very different when rent delinquency rises. National rent delinquency reached 11.09% in May 2026, and late payments on independently owned rentals climbed from 8.8% in mid-2024 to 11.7% by June 2025. A single eviction now costs landlords an average of $6,767 in legal fees, lost rent, and turnover expenses. This piece covers why screening standards tend to loosen during high-demand years, what the current delinquency and eviction data show, and what landlords should be tracking now.

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Using Public Data and AI to See Your Local Market More Clearly
Investor Tip

Using Public Data and AI to See Your Local Market More Clearly

Mainstream housing reports are aggregated and lagging by design, which limits how useful they are for understanding a specific neighborhood or block. Public records like permit filings, tax assessor rolls, water utility data, code violations, and business entity registries contain a much more granular picture, but they're scattered across different agencies and formats. AI is now being used to stitch these datasets together and surface patterns that would take a person weeks to find manually, from unregistered rental properties to hidden common ownership across multiple LLCs. This piece covers what data is available, how AI is being applied to it, and how investors can start building a clearer local picture.

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The Fed Raised Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here's What It Means for Your Next Deal
Market Insight

The Fed Raised Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here's What It Means for Your Next Deal

On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, citing a strong economy and elevated inflation. Mortgage rates have already risen in response. For real estate investors, this means financing costs may stay elevated longer than expected, making speed, deal structure, and lender reliability more important. Dominion Financial offers DSCR rental and fix and flip loans with in-house underwriting designed to close quickly and deliver on quoted terms in shifting rate environments.

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What the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Means for Institutional Investors
Market Insight

What the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act Means for Institutional Investors

Signed into law in July 2026, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act restricts institutional investors controlling 350 or more single-family homes from making additional purchases, effective January 7, 2027. The law does not require divestiture of existing holdings and applies only to future acquisitions. Exceptions remain available for build-to-rent programs, renovate-to-rent projects, foreclosure transactions, and purchases from other qualifying investors. Investors below the 350-home threshold, including most smaller and mid-sized investors, are not affected by the restriction.

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Opportunity Zones Explained: What Changed and What It Means for Investors
Investor Tip

Opportunity Zones Explained: What Changed and What It Means for Investors

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act made Qualified Opportunity Zones a permanent part of the tax code, replacing a program that was set to expire. New zone designations take effect January 1, 2027, under tighter eligibility criteria, and will be redesignated every 10 years going forward. Investments made after December 31, 2026, are subject to a new rolling 5-year deferral period instead of the old fixed 2026 recognition date, and continue to qualify for the standard 10% basis step-up at the five-year mark, while investments made before that deadline follow the original rules. Rural Opportunity Zones now carry a 30% basis step-up after a 5-year hold, versus 10% for standard zones, along with a reduced substantial improvement threshold, making rural deals notably more attractive than before. For investors, the practical impact is less urgency around a hard deadline and a new set of timing, location, and reporting considerations to weigh against other capital gains strategies.

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